📅 NIFTY Monthly Open-to-Close Returns: What to Expect for the Rest of 2025
The chart below shows NIFTY’s historical Open-to-Close % changes by month from 2016 to 2025. This data provides valuable insights into market seasonality — helping traders spot historically weak or strong months.
📊 2025 So Far (Jan–Jul)
- January: -0.12%
- February: -0.20%
- March: +0.21%
- April: +0.21%
- May: +0.05%
- June: +0.12%
- July: -0.12%
As of July 2025, the market has delivered a modest overall gain with 4 positive months out of 7. Momentum picked up mid-year, especially in March and April, which were both up +0.21%. However, the negative start and recent dip in July (-0.12%) suggest profit-taking or range-bound activity.
🔮 Outlook: What Can We Expect from August to December?
📈 August
Historically, August has been a mixed month. While years like 2021 and 2022 delivered gains, most other years leaned negative. In 2023 and 2024, August closed down -0.15% and -0.09% respectively. So traders should remain cautious about range breakdowns.
📉 September
Often a volatile and weak month. 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022 — all saw negative Septembers. Unless supported by strong global cues or domestic triggers, September tends to see consolidation or dips.
🟧 October
Mixed results. While some years like 2016, 2017, 2019 were negative, others showed positive closes. Use caution — October tends to be event-driven (festivals, earnings, RBI meet).
🟩 November
One of the more favorable months historically. In 2023 and 2022, November saw gains of +0.07% and +0.08% respectively. Seasonality improves as we enter festive season and year-end rallies.
🟩 December
Though volatile globally, NIFTY has closed positively in December in most years (2023: +0.12%, 2022: -0.12%, 2021: -0.15%). FII participation and low volatility help improve sentiment during the last month.
📌 Seasonal Strategy Insights
- August & September: Be conservative. Use neutral strategies like Iron Condor or Calendar Spreads.
- October: Trade cautiously with event-based setups. Watch for RBI/FED triggers.
- November–December: Potential for short-term rallies. Consider bullish setups if supported by OI, VIX and sentiment.
✅ Final Words
This year (2025) started slow, gained strength mid-year, and is now entering a seasonally cautious period. Based on historical behavior, the second half of the year may favor range-bound to mildly bullish moves — especially in November and December. Stay informed and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
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